I went out this morning to see... it wasn't even cold, a mere -1C (30F)... kind of good news though...
So yesterday I put back in the factory original choke thermostat, but I had adjusted it less than I normally would have (leaner)...
I took off the air cleaner, pressed the gas from under the hood, the choke plate closed the correct amount and it did go to the fast idle cam step.
After 3-4 mins I tapped the gas and it came off fast idle. The choke plate was open a little more.
After 15-20 mins of warming up and driving the choke plate was about halfway between closed and full open position. I don't know if it opened enough as the engine was fully warm.
I will continue to experiment in the coming days, it's going to get proper cold by about Tuesday.
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The main thing I did differently this time is I marked on the carb with the thermostat removed the two positions of the choke itself, closed and open. Then I marked the thermostat where the spring hook is hot, room temp, and cold from the freezer. I matched those positions up as my starting point. It's kind of hard to explain so I'll add a pic to help explain what I did - don't worry I do have the choke wire hooked up even though it's not in the pic.
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My suspicion right now is that the linkage may have not been moving as freely as it was supposed to before (thanks for the cleaning tip), and I think I had the choke set way too rich. Having these new reference marks I think will help me dial it in better as I can visually see from the top outside where things should be at, at least to start.
Fingers crossed! I still have two other thermostats to try if needed but I figured I'd start with the original one first.