... they really, REALLY didn't want me to put synthetic into an older car. ...
lol
They live on truisms. You'd blow their minds if you went over the formulation technical specification reasons for using Shell Rotella T6 Synthetic 5W-40 "Diesel oil" to meet the needs of your older flat-tappet gas engine. In my NAPA, the two young guys were standing there with their mouths hanging open (one knew what flat tappet was), while the older guy has nodding along and then said that's right, and also for oil shear, then went into details which went over my head.
Using 10W-30, I went synthetic in my Eagles back in the 90's. Engine turns over significantly easier. Yours may already be on synthetic.
Do note from the thread I linked to
[...]AMC doesn't get much love, but Jeeps, even early Jeeps do.
Without going to one of the premium & expensive high ZDDP oils formulated for older (flat tappet) engines, the toss up for a 4.2/4.0 era Jeep flat tappet in an SN rated oil seemed to be between Mobil 1 or Castrol Edge. I'd have liked Castrol Edge Extended Performance (better additives which last longer), but it isn't available in the xW-yy grade I wanted. (And over SN, I'd like the latest SP rated oil too, but it's too new to have wide choices yet.) Castrol Edge is thought to likely be slightly better than Mobil 1 for Jeep engines, due to a better match of its additives to the needs of that era of engine. Both would still require some user added additive for flat tappet. [...]
The step beyond Mobile 1 Synthetic or Castrol Edge Synthetic, is the Shell Rotella T6 Full Synthetic.
From the temperatures covered by the different grades, the temps listed for your area, and the Eagle oil chart, I'd be strongly looking at 10W-40, or even 5W-40.
The problem is, I'm on the fence between 10W-40 and 5W-40 for your record lows. BUT,
for engine longevity I want oil flowing and flowing well for all my starting. For that when-cold flow, hence longevity, I'd have to give the nod to 5W-40.
Here's why I'm on the fence.
Looking at the chart (in other thread) of
modern temperature ranges listed for
modern oils, a
modern 10W shows as covering to -30 C, which does cover your record lows. But again, longevity.
To look at the type of data they derive the temp/grade chart from, from the W oil viscosity graph (in other thread),
* at your average winter low around 0 C the difference between 10W and 5W is negligible.
* at your record lows, the difference between 5W and 10W is meaningful, but while 10W is thicker than 5W, 10W is NOT
horribly thick at those temps. 10W should be fine, but again, longevity.
IMHO, I believe the bottom line is: a 10W-40 would be fine, a 5W-40 would be better for when-cold flow, hence longevity. If you travel in winter to colder regions (further north? higher altitude?), then I'd be stronger on the 5W-40.